@mliverpool05 @jdstafford11 @ChrisMGra @EssexPR If you want the average to be "in context" this is where I got it from if you want to read it: https://t.co/N2uZOtxOv1
Spiegelhalters Sep 2020 analysis of COVID shows that excess mortality from COVID infection exists only for those aged 55 years and older. Keep this curve in mind when we're assessing risk/benefit of interventions. https://t.co/9qN397a3Sf https://t.co/vhy
@AngryCardio It's from Spiegelhalter. Nothing medical actually, just plain and boring maths: https://t.co/LSVBSzzguu
@_heatgeek @VietecHeating @robertjwhitney Short answer: society decided that 600,000 deaths would be too many - see https://t.co/54rV0DeIAB .
This was equally interesting to note too.. Was the way governments reacted towards the crisis proportionate to risks? What do you think? https://t.co/5S5Xm1lZbl
RT @_Kheri_: Found an interesting paper by Brit Statistician Sir David Spiegelhalter "Use of “normal”risk to improve understanding of dang…
Found an interesting paper by Brit Statistician Sir David Spiegelhalter "Use of “normal”risk to improve understanding of dangers of covid-19" Among others he notes"The risks of catching and dying from the virus vary 10 000-fold depending on age" https:/
На колко повече риск от смърт от Covid са изложени различните възрастови групи. @bozhobg @yurukov @MariaSpirova https://t.co/10OnP3VK62 https://t.co/wQjgIFF0Cx
@pziegler1986 @MockDelbourne @BalthazarGrimm @BallouxFrancois @ClarkeMicah @FatEmperor So, @pziegler1986, you said "the most comprehensive IFR studies peg it closer to 0.2%". Where's your evidence for that? (No, Ioannidis' paper doesn't count, since it's
@hickey1690 @DavidColby10 @afneil The percentage for dying if you are old and already seriously ill is a lot higher than 0.3 percent.https://t.co/NCFnuBUmGF
58/ That's 5 times Ioannidis' IFR was such an under-estimate, that it required more people be infected than actually exist. (papers #1, 6, 46, 49, and 50 [almost #16, with >92% infected]) It should have never passed peer review https://t.co/OpyZFws0X
@mikebarnkob Fin gennemgang. Det kunne være du skulle bruge nogle publicerede artikler omkring IFR som reference i stedet for https://t.co/6zm8EG86D9 https://t.co/sH93BGyRcP https://t.co/q0t1t5ECpJ https://t.co/92yNzuHjWl https://t.co/x6EUd6Ji7r http
@lcbrown62 @In_Hope_ @timspector You think because your healthy your not at risk. People alot more qualified than you or I are clear for over 55’s the risk of catching and dying from covid increases your risk of death by 9.6%. Not exactly small? https://t
@Awithonelison @thiswizardrocks @ryyansowa @cnnbrk The CDC’s Covid-19 age-specific survival rates ...: • Age 0-19 — 99.997% • Age 20-49 — 99.98% • Age 50-69 — 99.5% • Age 70+ — 94.6%. but of course need to consider infectiousness that's li
@Maratosflier @R_H_Ebright @NAChristakis One pass of COVID, doubles one's own individualized (on age and risk factors) risk of deaths. https://t.co/Turfj06F8R One can translate this to life insurance premiums too, since $$$ talks and BS walks :)
Dear 90.2% of Australians who want to keep the current limitations on travel in & out of the country, please read this - https://t.co/gySyxqOz7L - & think about whether you are assessing risk wisely.
@rejectthegreat1 @myhill_nathan @soundsmove @Aug24 @GeoffLiddy1 Dude, do your research https://t.co/YmHKA3cOUP
@lcbrown62 @OutsideAllan Also worth remembering that normal annual mortality risk increases exponentially with age. As high as 10% for the over 80s. C19 was estimated to add 5 weeks to this risk for over 55s, meaning 5 weeks lower life expectancy on averag
@Doug_Lind_Say @barttels2 @VPrasadMDMPH A similar piece was published by @d_spiegel at https://t.co/3Vxum7wS3k I grabbed the hazard ratios from that piece to estimate the years lost. Interestingly enough the "younger" less developed world will lose more y
@christofthinks @thiaess @fabiohasler_ @b_reutimann @rsprivat @alex_baur 12/ ... wird ja auch die Existenz des Virus bestritten, die Grippe-Impfung sei ein Verbrechen und Krankheit komme sowieso nie von aussen, sondern nur «von innen» (siehe Screnshot) [0
@amibanerjee1 Great work Ami! I agree, the true infection rate is higher than 10%, because the relative impact of the pandemic is ~2 https://t.co/5tTSDLGJuS
RT @bmj_latest: Accumulating data on deaths from #COVID19 show an association with age that closely matches the “normal” risk we all face.…
@HegKong I’d argue that your statement that it ‘poses minuscule risk to the vast majority’ is misleading... https://t.co/DFmzfXhOrY
RT @Grund_gesetzt: The risk of dying from Covid19 matches the risk of dying. https://t.co/u3jfkS7iwU
RT @einandererblog: „Das Risiko, an Covid-19 zu sterben, entspricht in etwa dem Risiko, zu sterben.“ 📌 Perfekt. Besser kann man den Dummlac…
Most people in society have little understanding of risk. Any individual’s risk of dying is extremely low (roughly 1/1000, if you realize that not everyone is going to get the virus). If you are young or otherwise healthy, it’s astronomically low, like y
https://t.co/Pnf931H4jH Time to retweet a very underrated study from September.
RT @einandererblog: „Das Risiko, an Covid-19 zu sterben, entspricht in etwa dem Risiko, zu sterben.“ 📌 Perfekt. Besser kann man den Dummlac…
RT @einandererblog: „Das Risiko, an Covid-19 zu sterben, entspricht in etwa dem Risiko, zu sterben.“ 📌 Perfekt. Besser kann man den Dummlac…
RT @Grund_gesetzt: The risk of dying from Covid19 matches the risk of dying. https://t.co/u3jfkS7iwU
RT @Grund_gesetzt: The risk of dying from Covid19 matches the risk of dying. https://t.co/u3jfkS7iwU
RT @ChristosArgyrop: Data for this: 1) Weibull distribution fit to UN 2000 population data https://t.co/sUfSCtysTC 2) Prop of the populati…
„so it is generally fine to say that covid-19 would roughly double the risk of dying. But if you were frail and had a 60% risk of dying next year, then with infection this would rise to 2×0.6–0.62=0.84, so altogether you would have an 84% chance of dying »
Use of “normal” risk to improve understanding of dangers of covid-19 https://t.co/cEDDp7aoG4 via Sir @d_spiegel
@chrcelso @JuanPabloTorran @imperialcollege @d_spiegel Aquí hay uno de sus papers. Es un súper experto https://t.co/BRwNkRFAzm
@chestmedicine You need to read the paper in BMJ https://t.co/Turfj06F8R
Data for this: 1) Weibull distribution fit to UN 2000 population data https://t.co/sUfSCtysTC 2) Prop of the population susceptible: from LANL's R0 work https://t.co/CslTB6DfLm 3) Relative Risk : https://t.co/Turfj06F8R 4) Disclaimer: this is for the firs
@Fraz__K @tonymc39 @paulvgreenall @DPJHodges Fuller article is here - also @BBCMoreOrLess covered this issue in Spring, iirc even very elderly lose 5+ years of life. https://t.co/AhgNmh6pEX
RT @Grund_gesetzt: Die Studie von David Spiegelhalter im BMJ von September zeigt bezogen auf das Sterbealter im Detail, dass das Risiko, an…
RT @WinfriedKern: ... das Dort zitierte Paper ist hochinteressant - es bleibt die Frage: welche Lockdown-Variante/sonstiger Maßnahmen-Katal…
RT @WinfriedKern: ... das Dort zitierte Paper ist hochinteressant - es bleibt die Frage: welche Lockdown-Variante/sonstiger Maßnahmen-Katal…
... das Dort zitierte Paper ist hochinteressant - es bleibt die Frage: welche Lockdown-Variante/sonstiger Maßnahmen-Katalog reduziert am besten das Hospitalisierungsrisiko (=Überlastung der Medizin mit sekundären Folgen außerhalb C19) und das Sterberisiko
RT @Grund_gesetzt: The risk of dying from Covid19 matches the risk of dying. https://t.co/u3jfkS7iwU
RT @Grund_gesetzt: The risk of dying from Covid19 matches the risk of dying. https://t.co/u3jfkS7iwU
RT @Grund_gesetzt: The risk of dying from Covid19 matches the risk of dying. https://t.co/u3jfkS7iwU
RT @Grund_gesetzt: The risk of dying from Covid19 matches the risk of dying. https://t.co/u3jfkS7iwU
RT @Grund_gesetzt: The risk of dying from Covid19 matches the risk of dying. https://t.co/u3jfkS7iwU
RT @Grund_gesetzt: The risk of dying from Covid19 matches the risk of dying. https://t.co/u3jfkS7iwU
RT @Grund_gesetzt: The risk of dying from Covid19 matches the risk of dying. https://t.co/u3jfkS7iwU
RT @Grund_gesetzt: The risk of dying from Covid19 matches the risk of dying. https://t.co/u3jfkS7iwU
RT @Grund_gesetzt: The risk of dying from Covid19 matches the risk of dying. https://t.co/u3jfkS7iwU
@M_T_Franz I love it 😄 https://t.co/tAY7Pi3UZV
RT @Grund_gesetzt: Die Studie von David Spiegelhalter im BMJ von September zeigt bezogen auf das Sterbealter im Detail, dass das Risiko, an…
RT @Grund_gesetzt: The risk of dying from Covid19 matches the risk of dying. https://t.co/u3jfkS7iwU
RT @Grund_gesetzt: The risk of dying from Covid19 matches the risk of dying. https://t.co/u3jfkS7iwU
RT @Grund_gesetzt: The risk of dying from Covid19 matches the risk of dying. https://t.co/u3jfkS7iwU
RT @Grund_gesetzt: The risk of dying from Covid19 matches the risk of dying. https://t.co/u3jfkS7iwU
RT @Grund_gesetzt: Die Studie von David Spiegelhalter im BMJ von September zeigt bezogen auf das Sterbealter im Detail, dass das Risiko, an…
RT @Grund_gesetzt: Die Studie von David Spiegelhalter im BMJ von September zeigt bezogen auf das Sterbealter im Detail, dass das Risiko, an…
So sieht es aus, ab einem bestimmten Alter stirbt der Mensch schneller. Täglich sind viele Todesanzeigen in der Tageszeitung zu lesen, darunter kaum ein(e) Covidtote(r)!
RT @Grund_gesetzt: Die Studie von David Spiegelhalter im BMJ von September zeigt bezogen auf das Sterbealter im Detail, dass das Risiko, an…
RT @Grund_gesetzt: Die Studie von David Spiegelhalter im BMJ von September zeigt bezogen auf das Sterbealter im Detail, dass das Risiko, an…
RT @Grund_gesetzt: Die Studie von David Spiegelhalter im BMJ von September zeigt bezogen auf das Sterbealter im Detail, dass das Risiko, an…
RT @Grund_gesetzt: Die Studie von David Spiegelhalter im BMJ von September zeigt bezogen auf das Sterbealter im Detail, dass das Risiko, an…
RT @Grund_gesetzt: Die Studie von David Spiegelhalter im BMJ von September zeigt bezogen auf das Sterbealter im Detail, dass das Risiko, an…
RT @BouvierJourno: This person doesn't understand risk. The correct comparitor is normal risk. Estimating mortality risk from COVID is dif…
This person doesn't understand risk. The correct comparitor is normal risk. Estimating mortality risk from COVID is difficult coz of age variance. However, it also about debilitating long COVID. Thing is, no-one knows who'll win life's booby prize. htt
RT @d_spiegel: My BMJ paper on using the idea of ‘normal’/background/actuarial risk to communicate the huge range of risks from COVID-19 ex…
@CPFCAlfie @SkyNewsBreak a long way of saying. 'I'm too afraid of negligible risk in life to do anything' and also 'I can't figure out how to read a study on the actual risk of covid' all in one image. Sorry, some of us are neither statistically illiterate
RT @BallouxFrancois: @LilithAssyria @TricckyLab #COVID19 causes most mortality in demographies already at high risk of death. Though, it is…
@LilithAssyria @TricckyLab #COVID19 causes most mortality in demographies already at high risk of death. Though, it is not correct to consider it doesn't cause excess deaths. Instead, #COVID19 can be viewed as a 'risk multiplier'. @d_spiegel wrote an excel
@DrDanHurt @HagleyTom1234 @timspector Those who've caught COVID have doubled their risk of dying within the next year. Without distancing measures, I think it's safe to assume 10x more deaths than we've had already, with the associated increase in people n
RT @roby_bhatt: 16/ Lots of great work to clarify IFR, but somehow this speculative one stuck with me & met my brain where it was already g…
@MarkPotts9 @FrankSerpico10 @wooks7619 @Rob_Slatts @beckyb492 @Lord_Sugar No? Strange. Try this from the BMJ. https://t.co/g1zm9Eodyk
This analysis from David Spiegelhalter shows that catching COVID19 roughly doubles the risk of death in a given year for a 41-year old: https://t.co/RKA0fcGVcX
@_Be_free_i_be @NM_Rdg @NeilDotObrien @M_Geraghty1970 Those deaths aren't disproportionately elderly, or with worse pre-existing conditions (article below shows this for age, study referred to above shows it for pre-existing conditions). So what would have
16/ Lots of great work to clarify IFR, but somehow this speculative one stuck with me & met my brain where it was already going: age-dependent IFR means COVID ~doubles actuarial death rates (Fig 2), & thus may tell us more abt humans than abt SARS-
RT @surplustakes: The fact that these groups cover 99% of Covid deaths reflects how age dominates almost all other risk factors. Risk of…
@Giannis48373077 @Greeksburg Link με συχνότητες δεν είδα ακόμα και μπερδεύεις τη δεσμευμένη με την αδέσμευτη πιθανότητα. ΔΕΝ γνωρίζουμε τη προσωπική μας πιθανότητα επιβίωσης/αποφυγής long covid. Επίσης https://t.co/xdw6xM7VL0
@ScotDartsNeil @tracygriffiths @RossWoodall1 @Dr_Ellie @NHSuk COVID-19 doesn't just kill the elderly at the end of life, it kills people at the same rate as other causes of death. Catching it roughly doubles your chances of dying within the next year, rega
@BJournism @hughosmond @tudorgeek70 @DrWaqarRashid1 Worst treated how? Same restrictions as everyone else outside school, virtually no restrictions during school hours, childcare bubbles set up for them etc. No one has zero chance of dying within the next
@BJournism @hughosmond @tudorgeek70 @DrWaqarRashid1 COVID isn't just killing those on death's door. Catching it ~doubles your risk of dying in the next year, whether you're 40 or 100. Kids have been better treated during the epidemic than any other age gr
Another way of looking at it "For those >55 who are infected with covid-19, the additional risk of dying is slightly more than the “normal” risk of death from all other causes over one year, and less for <55s." = doubling deaths for a given year 5/x
I think this one puts a pretty good perspective on things https://t.co/kZ2n36eyWN - n00b https://t.co/SWObD9hglM
RT @M_T_Franz: For those over 55 with #COVID19 , the additional risk of dying is slightly more than the “normal” risk of death from all oth…
RT @M_T_Franz: For those over 55 with #COVID19 , the additional risk of dying is slightly more than the “normal” risk of death from all oth…
@olipoole @charlotte_may @NikkiJeffery1 🤞 we should be able to get significant normality back without jabbing the whole population. To get rid of most deaths you only need to immunise over 60s and people with underlying conditions - this graph illustrates
RT @lucymowatt: Use of “normal” risk to improve understanding of dangers of covid-19 | The BMJ https://t.co/Fme4Wtsw3n
RT @cjsnowdon: This, by @d_spiegel, is still the best thing anyone’s written about Covid risk. https://t.co/ttmd1qlcJU
RT @cjsnowdon: This, by @d_spiegel, is still the best thing anyone’s written about Covid risk. https://t.co/ttmd1qlcJU
RT @cjsnowdon: This, by @d_spiegel, is still the best thing anyone’s written about Covid risk. https://t.co/ttmd1qlcJU
RT @cjsnowdon: This, by @d_spiegel, is still the best thing anyone’s written about Covid risk. https://t.co/ttmd1qlcJU
RT @cjsnowdon: This, by @d_spiegel, is still the best thing anyone’s written about Covid risk. https://t.co/ttmd1qlcJU
RT @cjsnowdon: This, by @d_spiegel, is still the best thing anyone’s written about Covid risk. https://t.co/ttmd1qlcJU
RT @cjsnowdon: This, by @d_spiegel, is still the best thing anyone’s written about Covid risk. https://t.co/ttmd1qlcJU
RT @cjsnowdon: This, by @d_spiegel, is still the best thing anyone’s written about Covid risk. https://t.co/ttmd1qlcJU
RT @cjsnowdon: This, by @d_spiegel, is still the best thing anyone’s written about Covid risk. https://t.co/ttmd1qlcJU