This, by @d_spiegel, is still the best thing anyone’s written about Covid risk. https://t.co/ttmd1qlcJU
RT @surplustakes: The fact that these groups cover 99% of Covid deaths reflects how age dominates almost all other risk factors. Risk of…
RT @surplustakes: The fact that these groups cover 99% of Covid deaths reflects how age dominates almost all other risk factors. Risk of…
RT @kbbcubed: Age plays the greatest role in covid deaths. We must protect our most vulnerable FIRST!
RT @surplustakes: The fact that these groups cover 99% of Covid deaths reflects how age dominates almost all other risk factors. Risk of…
@SteveBakerHW Why not think about the risks and then make choices based on degree of vulnerability one feels (until population immunity reached) https://t.co/1BCCILNbGO https://t.co/mNBChqznVI
Age plays the greatest role in covid deaths. We must protect our most vulnerable FIRST!
RT @surplustakes: The fact that these groups cover 99% of Covid deaths reflects how age dominates almost all other risk factors. Risk of…
The fact that these groups cover 99% of Covid deaths reflects how age dominates almost all other risk factors. Risk of death doubles with every ~7 years of age. Like all exponential processes, this is hard to get your head around. @d_spiegel on this: ht
@BrankoMilan And COVID hasn't just been killing the elderly anyway. It's been roughly doubling the risk of dying within the next 12 months for everyone who catches it, regardless of their age. https://t.co/BkxGp03RVo
@lucasllach @BrankoMilan Exactly. COVID hasn't just been killing the elderly. It's been roughly doubling the risk of dying within the next 12 months for everyone who catches, regardless of their age. https://t.co/BkxGp03RVo
@v4vent Ποιός το έγραψε αυτό; Πέρα από 🤮 είναι και 🤥 https://t.co/xdw6xM7VL0
@BBCPolitics ... and even for those in the most at-risk age bracket (74-85) the risk CV19 presented in the spring was equivalent to just an additional 40 days worth of ordinary, background risk - so it's not dramatic (https://t.co/1BCCILNbGO)
So your risk of dying from #COVID19 is slightly less than your risk of dying in the coming year given the age you are at the moment: https://t.co/lk1F8pN83L
@RuminatorDan @jenclarkmusic That’s got me thinking. This showed risk of dying from covid was equal to risk of dying from any cause, increasing in line with age. If that holds, would that not mean that if everyone got it, total deaths would double? https:/
@csmatthe @vtdigger @GovPhilScott https://t.co/Q7vOrBnlsY Covid "multiplies" – slightly – the risk that is already there.
@froggielevog @BBCNews And your risk, albeit elevated, is not likely dramatic https://t.co/1BCCILNbGO
@gonzondeck @ameyandandy @Tamarama100 @KirstieMAllsopp Here’s a good paper on that. Left unchecked, for people over 20 the risk of COVID would roughly double the risk of dying in the next year https://t.co/XTbdcJS9ly
@Naterrrliee @DanRoot_VGAS @BBCNews Because it is not a proportionate response to the actual risk. For those in highest vulnerability age bracket, it's equivalent to just an additional 40 days' ordinary background risk (https://t.co/1BCCILNbGO). It's serio
@Naterrrliee @DanRoot_VGAS @BBCNews Again, there's no evidence asymptomatic transmission is a driver of SC2 spread. And, again, your risk isn't dramatic (https://t.co/1BCCIM4Mym)
@laurawh @BBCNews But just how great are these "risks"? It's nowhere near as dramatic as we have been led to believe (https://t.co/1BCCIM4Mym) and no evidence asymptomatic spread is significant (https://t.co/2bwgJFQ5tV). So it's just down to basic our comm
@CrownOfSapphire @BBCNews The key issue is that asymptomatic spread appears to be rare (https://t.co/2bwgJFyuCn) and a deliberate effort on behalf of SPI-B has been made to inflate the real risks (https://t.co/QXt4h19wNH) which are non-dramatic, een in the
@Naterrrliee @BBCNews If one considers oneself to be at higher risk (non-dramatic as this is https://t.co/1BCCILNbGO), one can make choices to mitigate that risk. The constraint on freedom here is presented by nature, and is limited in duration by time tak
@tarsins @BBCNews CV19 should not be a "game changer": it simply magnifies existing risk and even for those most vulnerable (74-85 yrs) it's simply equivalent to an additional 40 days' ordinary background risk - not exactly dramatic (https://t.co/1BCCILNbG
@fink_foster @BBCWorld @BBCNews The actual risk for those in the highest vulnerability age band is equivalent to just an additional 40 days worth of ordinary background risk; it's hardly running the gauntlet! https://t.co/1BCCILNbGO
@ChurchTimes The actual risks to this vulnerable minority must be kept in perspective. During the spring, the additional risk presented by CV19 to those most vulnerable (74-85yrs) was equivalent to just an additional 40 days' ordinary background risk... ht
England and Wales: Dashed lines are average mortality, solid circles are death with Covid, red male, blue female. https://t.co/Q7vOrBnlsY https://t.co/bS7MOuNkhu
@swingdownbeat @MathewMKC @_daveclancy @BBCNews And don't forget, even for the most vulnerable age bracket (74-85 yrs), in the spring CV19 presented risk equivalent to just an additional 40 days' ordinary background risk - hardly running the gauntlet, is i
@MackayIM His numbers seem a bit high compared to @d_spiegel analysis in BMJ https://t.co/0LhLzS1RJe https://t.co/FSgWEkdaak
https://t.co/HeJSclOFPb Interesting way of thinking about lethal risk of some action (in this case being infected with COVID-19) by comparing it to the risk of dying from everything in a normal year. The response from James Morris (03 Oct 2020) was even
@BBCNews Given the real (but non-dramatic) risks to a more vulnerable minority (https://t.co/1BCCILNbGO) mitigating CV19 risk should be more a matter of personal responsibility and choice than state coercion
@BoulangerLab @JoyceCarolOates Sure thing. Here is a statistical study from David Spiegelhalter, Cambridge University Data Professor specifically about Public Understanding of Risk. https://t.co/UTdKKxM81b
@EricRWeinstein How about we start examining the actual risks infection with the SC2 virus presents for various subsets of population and what each individual can do to mitigate these risks to them, which is actually pretty non-dramatic (https://t.co/1BCCI
@greg_travis @OnlyEnnui @DrDomPimenta Does "truther" mean people who correctly point out that Covid-19 represents "normal" risk for all age groups? Is Actuarialism a form of trutherism? Because I will let you argue with David Spiegelhalter. https://t.co
@daysleeper2019 @thedogshala @jimsciutto @joBeeGeorgeous Before you argue (or even speak) on this subject again on twitter and scare people with your incredibly uninformed guesses, read this: https://t.co/UTdKKxM81b
@trishgreenhalgh "The virus" is not harmful to the vast majority, and even for those to whom it presents a threat the risk is not dramatic, being equivalent to just an additional 40 days' normal, background risk https://t.co/1BCCILNbGO
RT @EricTopol: Understanding, contextualizing the risk of death from #COVID19 https://t.co/UrPn0BPkVm @bmj_latest A provocative new analysi…
... that freedom is a fundamental conservative principle. But, you also seem to over-estimate the (significant) risk this virus does present to those more vulnerable - https://t.co/jt7Y5oaBkJ
@Chelseachemist1 @gh4893 @tranzloop @r_discourse @NeilDotObrien Nevertheless, the risk of covid is that of a year of life regardless of age https://t.co/0OGiPyVOqu
RT @aginnt: 3/ “For those over 55 who are infected with COVID, the additional risk of dying is slightly more than the normal risk of death…
@cubic_logic No, not really. And the data are from March-June 2020. https://t.co/SQJxZpciJO https://t.co/2hqL3sjA2Z
RT @tlowdon: Critical point: If you're over 55, the risk of dying if you become infected with CoV2 is only slightly higher than your risk o…
RT @tlowdon: Critical point: If you're over 55, the risk of dying if you become infected with CoV2 is only slightly higher than your risk o…
RT @aginnt: 3/ “For those over 55 who are infected with COVID, the additional risk of dying is slightly more than the normal risk of death…
RT @tlowdon: Critical point: If you're over 55, the risk of dying if you become infected with CoV2 is only slightly higher than your risk o…
RT @aginnt: 3/ “For those over 55 who are infected with COVID, the additional risk of dying is slightly more than the normal risk of death…
RT @tlowdon: Critical point: If you're over 55, the risk of dying if you become infected with CoV2 is only slightly higher than your risk o…
RT @tlowdon: Critical point: If you're over 55, the risk of dying if you become infected with CoV2 is only slightly higher than your risk o…
RT @tlowdon: Critical point: If you're over 55, the risk of dying if you become infected with CoV2 is only slightly higher than your risk o…
RT @tlowdon: Critical point: If you're over 55, the risk of dying if you become infected with CoV2 is only slightly higher than your risk o…
Very interesting for building perspective - equates risk of death during the pandemic to “normal” risk to improve understanding of the dangers of covid-19 | The BMJ https://t.co/IvIfjtsaP3
RT @tlowdon: Critical point: If you're over 55, the risk of dying if you become infected with CoV2 is only slightly higher than your risk o…
RT @tlowdon: Critical point: If you're over 55, the risk of dying if you become infected with CoV2 is only slightly higher than your risk o…
RT @tlowdon: Critical point: If you're over 55, the risk of dying if you become infected with CoV2 is only slightly higher than your risk o…
RT @aginnt: 3/ “For those over 55 who are infected with COVID, the additional risk of dying is slightly more than the normal risk of death…
RT @aginnt: 3/ “For those over 55 who are infected with COVID, the additional risk of dying is slightly more than the normal risk of death…
RT @tlowdon: Critical point: If you're over 55, the risk of dying if you become infected with CoV2 is only slightly higher than your risk o…
Important study...
RT @tlowdon: Critical point: If you're over 55, the risk of dying if you become infected with CoV2 is only slightly higher than your risk o…
RT @tlowdon: Critical point: If you're over 55, the risk of dying if you become infected with CoV2 is only slightly higher than your risk o…
RT @aginnt: 3/ “For those over 55 who are infected with COVID, the additional risk of dying is slightly more than the normal risk of death…
Critical point: If you're over 55, the risk of dying if you become infected with CoV2 is only slightly higher than your risk of just dying of anything during the year. Luckily, COVID-19 usually has very little impact on life expectancy for those who get it
RT @aginnt: 3/ “For those over 55 who are infected with COVID, the additional risk of dying is slightly more than the normal risk of death…
RT @aginnt: 3/ “For those over 55 who are infected with COVID, the additional risk of dying is slightly more than the normal risk of death…
RT @aginnt: 3/ “For those over 55 who are infected with COVID, the additional risk of dying is slightly more than the normal risk of death…
3/ “For those over 55 who are infected with COVID, the additional risk of dying is slightly more than the normal risk of death from all other causes over one year, and less for under 55s.” https://t.co/YXGEDeR1LU
Use of “normal” risk to improve understanding of dangers of covid-19 https://t.co/wd9hBzs6OP
@FamedCelebrity I'd say @d_spiegel 's estimate of a proportional increase in the lifetable rate (https://t.co/Turfj06F8R) and the demography piece at PNAS (https://t.co/qkdQlJxjDW) are compatible with data from the funeral services sector https://t.co/Hc7g
@Leo_Harrison1 @Basilsalty @DrHoenderkamp Don’t dispute the excess death figures at all. But the facts are that the heavily skewed age profile of COVID deaths overlaps significantly with those at a relatively high risk of death within the next 12months. Th
and, of course, news articles have been quickly censored ... perhaps clearer than previous UK's https://t.co/4IQYya1i0H New Study Highlights Alleged Accounting Error Regarding Covid Deaths https://t.co/TM9LP8dO6U from @aier
Use of “normal” risk to improve understanding of dangers of covid-19 | The BMJ https://t.co/LkcNDwYI1Y
@salonium During the "first wave" in the UK it's been estimated that Covid-19 roughly doubles the risk of dying for people aged over 55: https://t.co/aZix5pZ9RB In the "second wave" the risk may be appreciably lower.
@SassyPsychDoc Lady...stop calling yourself a “Healthcare Professional” until you get the concept of Actuary Risk. Your belief that Children are “at risk” of Covid is both scientifically incorrect and disproven. https://t.co/UTdKKxM81b
@ZubyMusic Regardless of what age you are, catching COVID roughly doubles your chances of dying within the next year. https://t.co/BkxGp03RVo
@southlondonjohn @twentysixbux @Cruella1 @IckenhamUB10 @LouiseRawAuthor You may also be surprised to know that "For those over 55 who are infected with covid-19, the additional risk of dying is slightly more than the “normal” risk of death from all other c
@AdamJRuby @alanbee5ley @timspector @LivUni @johnmooressu @LiverpoolHopeUK @DPH_MAshton @LJMU @PHE_uk @michaelmina_lab @d_spiegel has talked about risk scores for covid which again hasn't been discussed much.https://t.co/zATFmvSKUf
@CarolynStorer_ @EndUKLockdown1 In this context, the actual risk covid presents should be considered (https://t.co/1BCCILNbGO) and it is not terribly dramatic
@EmmanuelSchizas Και δεν έχουμε καν και αρκετές παρατηρήσεις για το πόσο θα κοπεί το προσδόκιμο από χρόνια προβλήματα, αλλά ξέρουμε πως 👇 https://t.co/xdw6xM7VL0
@devisridhar No evidence asymptomatic transmission an issue. Enjoy Christmas, enjoy your life: don't cower in fear from this largely benign virus. Even in those aged 74-85, risk CV19 presented in spring equivalent to just 40 days' extra normal background r
@Fletchey2 @timspector @SteveBakerHW The age distribution of COVID deaths is very similar to non-COVID deaths. Regardless of what age you are, catching COVID roughly doubles your chance of dying within the next year. https://t.co/BkxGp03RVo https://t.co/
@Jopo_dr @EdwinLeoThomas @SepsisUK @OUHospitals The risk of death presented by CV19 to those aged 74-85 in spring was equivalent to just an additional 40 days' background risk, though (https://t.co/1BCCILNbGO)
Link to the study: https://t.co/vWrwVJXg9V #medlibs
@BreconQuaddy @FullFact Looking at full age distribution: https://t.co/BkxGp03RVo
@AnnaBis37268098 @JoeHutzal @redouad @MaxCRoser @OurWorldInData COVID hasn't just killed those on death's door. Regardless of what age you are, catching COVID roughly doubles your chance of dying within the next year. There may still be some survivorship
RT @earnmyturns: @mattyglesias It doubles your risk of dying next year, at any age > 20. Would you get on that flight? https://t.co/PGKPnmq…
@mattyglesias It doubles your risk of dying next year, at any age > 20. Would you get on that flight? https://t.co/PGKPnmqN8s
@TheEconomist It amazing that association between covid death and age maches so close to the Gompertz–Makeham law of mortality (chance of dying in general doubles every 8 years). So in effect we are twice as likely to die during the pandemic than otherwise
Fit well with this: "The IFR was estimated ... be roughly equivalent to the age specific annual mortality: currently it seems to be slightly more than a year’s worth for over 55s and less than this for under 55s." 4/x https://t.co/sH93BGyRcP https://t.c
RT @texutree: @devisridhar @matthewrbroome (https://t.co/1BCCILNbGO), they are hardly running the proverbial gauntlet...
@derfdj2 @CraigRCox1 @BBCNews The point is more what level of 'risk' is to be considered acceptable for maintenance of the normality we cherish and live for. Risk of death undergone by those 74-85yrs equivalent to just 40 days' normal, background risk. htt
@devisridhar @matthewrbroome (https://t.co/1BCCILNbGO), they are hardly running the proverbial gauntlet...
RT @cubic_logic: However COVID19 seems to be effectively doubling the risk of dying in all age groups! And if infection doesn't lead to a…
RT @steber232: @GasparNoir @MaxCRoser I don't know, but that's not the case (at least for UK as a whole). COVID deaths: Mean age 78.7 for…
@GasparNoir @MaxCRoser I don't know, but that's not the case (at least for UK as a whole). COVID deaths: Mean age 78.7 for males, 82.5 for females. Non-COVID deaths: Mean age 79.3 for males, 82.9 for females. https://t.co/xCtrHyNs8N https://t.co/e6fFpk
@MaxCRoser And the age distribution of COVID deaths is really similar to non-COVID deaths. Regardless of what age you are, catching COVID roughly doubles your chances of dying this year. https://t.co/BkxGp03RVo