RT @youth_unheard: https://t.co/WQI9IEQOl6 Balanced view on the "risk" posed by Covid. But how you can jump from that to concluding we nee…
https://t.co/WQI9IEQOl6 Balanced view on the "risk" posed by Covid. But how you can jump from that to concluding we need to isolate everyone from each other and ignore the harms caused by doing this, including direct/indirect deaths, is not rooted in scie
@WeWanttoLive5 @zoeharcombe https://t.co/WQI9IEQOl6 Here is a good article on the actual maths of Covid vs normal. How you decide that the risk warrants the response we have come up with is not one rooted in science, but in political ideology.
@CV19_UK @JamesElijahMill @BonaDrag1 @ParkinJim @cadonovan32 @ClareCraigPath @FatEmperor The average age of death for COVID is very similar to average age for non-COVID deaths, in fact the whole age distribution is very similar. This is absolutely not a di
@JamesElijahMill @CV19_UK @BonaDrag1 @ParkinJim @cadonovan32 @ClareCraigPath @FatEmperor It's not at all the case that, post-first wave, we're now a nation of superfit young people who won't need healthcare for decades. COVID-19 roughly doubled risk of dea
@huwjpthomas @FullFact COVID--19 hasn't just killed those "who would die soon anyway", the age distribution of COVID-19 deaths has been very similar to non-COVID-19 desths. Catching COVID-19 roughly doubles your chances of dying this year, regardless of ho
It's been tricky communicating stats... ❌ Compared UK to other countries: https://t.co/cP2OYH48Cg got misinterpreted by politicians. ✅How to communicate the average risk of dying of something else/importance of age ➡️https://t.co/tHzIXDFmAn ❌ Then the
RT @bmj_latest: Accumulating data on deaths from #COVID19 show an association with age that closely matches the “normal” risk we all face.…
A good explanation of covid mortality risk. https://t.co/pu4kOxbuK1
@doc_kristy Idea would be that if we vaccinate the 17m over-55 + at-risk +HCW, the other 46m of us would then run through over 6mo, and give relatively few hospitalisations or deaths. Could still be as high as 0.02% or average out at 5000+ excess deaths.
@MetCC This virus is not so dangerous as to constitute a threat so dangerous that we undergo retrenchments in our basic rights. The risk CV19 presents for a person in age bracket 75-84 is equivalent to just and additional 40 days' normal background risk ht
RT @cubic_logic: However COVID19 seems to be effectively doubling the risk of dying in all age groups! And if infection doesn't lead to a…
However COVID19 seems to be effectively doubling the risk of dying in all age groups! And if infection doesn't lead to a strong immune response nor an effective vaccine is developed, it will disproportionately affect the young https://t.co/M2z4Wktcui ht
Use of “normal” risk to improve understanding of dangers of covid-19 https://t.co/Hknkf6PVKd
@SylviaDeeDee @lostinayr @ZokaShaun @ClareCraigPath Older people tend to die more than younger people, for both COVID and other causes of death. Regardless of what age you are, catching COVID roughly doubles your chances of dying this year. https://t.co/
@ZokaShaun @ClareCraigPath Average age of all deaths is in the low 80's. COVID-19 isn't just killing those on death's door, it's killing about as many of those infected in each age group as die of every other cause combined. https://t.co/BkxGp03RVo
@ZokaShaun @ClareCraigPath False positives are absolutely tiny when you have a less than 0.05% false positive test and about 8% of tests come back positive. It kills about 1 in 100 people it infects, roughly doubling your risk of dying this year if you ca
@IDontDoLove14 @LeeSafcMiller @timspector @ProfKarolSikora Interesting - could you provide a source? Catching COVID roughly doubles your chances of dying this year, regardless of age, so I guess that means those <70 have about a 0.05% chance of dying in
RT @steber232: @covid_london @AdamJKucharski Decent rule of thumb is that catching COVID ~2x your chance of dying this year, regardless of…
@covid_london @AdamJKucharski Decent rule of thumb is that catching COVID ~2x your chance of dying this year, regardless of age (in the UK at least). So any UK model using an age-varying IFR should have an age profile that looks broadly like the usual an
Defo worth a retweet.
@GrowLikeGrandad A great article from the BMJ here about the actual risk. Useful to remember that it's very far from being another plague. People are getting slightly carried away about how dangerous Covid is to people other then the elderly and frail. htt
@Telstar22995931 @DerbysPolice There is no raging fire. Risk even to the most vulnerable (74-85) is only equivalent to an additional 40 days worth of normal, background risk https://t.co/1BCCILNbGO
RT @bathwin: This is a good analysis from the BMJ. 'For the general population, the risk of catching and then dying from covid-19 during 16…
This is a good analysis from the BMJ. 'For the general population, the risk of catching and then dying from covid-19 during 16 weeks of the pandemic was equivalent to experiencing around 5 weeks extra “normal” risk' #Lockdown2 https://t.co/ChClBCyZhC
@mcdee_andy @CoralBlob @MarkjohnsonHome @willcarling I didn't say they should be culled. In terms of normal risk, even for those elderly at most risk, it's still only equivalent to an additional 40 days worth of normal risk... . https://t.co/1BCCILNbGO
RT @DrJinRussell: Eg2: Speigelhalter wrote in Sep: https://t.co/c6ZqktfY6V “the message that covid-19 risk was ~the same as the annual risk…
Eg2: Speigelhalter wrote in Sep: https://t.co/c6ZqktfY6V “the message that covid-19 risk was ~the same as the annual risk (and that catching the virus roughly doubles the risk of dying this year) was misinterpreted [to mean] that it did not increase the an
RT @profpauldolan: Interesting analysis by @d_spiegel on whether we should use a comparison with “normal risk” when understanding and commu…
@CroCoach11 @ellie24373653 @JohnDow11546453 @JimMFelton A meaningless & inaccurate meme as risk varies by age & other factors. During 7/3/20-26/6/20 there were nearly 59K excess deaths in E&W. The key question then, is are you prepared to volun
@TimandraHarknes "The average age of hospitalized COVID-19 patients also dropped from 63 to 47." And from https://t.co/kAYVWDlgA4 "the average annual risk of death doubles for each seven years of extra age" So I reckon that alone brings risk of death do
Are we dealing with COVID-19 the best way? UK BMJ article shows those 55+ who get infected are at only slightly more than 'normal' risk of death from all other causes in any year. https://t.co/0j4Izi5v5h #covid19research #coronavirusuk https://t.co/h2iC3X
RT @BallouxFrancois: An excellent, if somewhat dry piece, on the risk of death associated to #COVID19 infection. It might be difficult to c…
Fits with the estimates from the BMJ paper "Use of “normal” risk to improve understanding of dangers of covid-19" That the deaths from Covid-19 is the equivalent of "1 years additional deaths in any age group" https://t.co/snAgc76GUm https://t.co/ScL24FUM
Anonymous accounts that 'care too much' are where I go to get all my Covid hot takes, as well as those on how to run a newspaper 🙄 https://t.co/RNAlpDLB5T
@IanCornwell6 @WSelka @Jen4Scot @toadmeister For 'flu, not so much. Lockdown drastically curtailed transmission of everything, not just Covid-19. Yes, some people died of Covid-19 when they would have died of something else sooner rather than later. How mu
@Markus_Soeder Komisch diese Pandemie.. Todesrate exakt der normalen Sterblichkeit.. https://t.co/sDFDPGI4Eq https://t.co/MbSUa4jp1s
@NJunninger @OlafGersemann @welt schon ein komisches Todesvirus, mit absolut normaler Todesrate.. https://t.co/sDFDPGI4Eq https://t.co/FIWvaNysVE
@Corrick_Greyson @ChrisOlin @samclark2225 @AskeladdenTX @interpolated Not in the next 12 months. The average 80yo has a life expectancy of about 10 years. https://t.co/hCQVTVZKS7
RT @profpauldolan: Interesting analysis by @d_spiegel on whether we should use a comparison with “normal risk” when understanding and commu…
RT @profpauldolan: Interesting analysis by @d_spiegel on whether we should use a comparison with “normal risk” when understanding and commu…
RT @profpauldolan: Interesting analysis by @d_spiegel on whether we should use a comparison with “normal risk” when understanding and commu…
@fretwhizzyuk @DrDomPimenta @talkRADIO Here is a relatively good article explaining, in a manner, the relative risks by age. https://t.co/KRvGUF8Pbm
@InfoAlternat @berniespofforth https://t.co/tQJRJ8SEeG looks like a more useful way of talking about the risk.
profpauldolan: Interesting analysis by @d_spiegel on whether we should use a comparison with “normal risk” when understanding and communicating #Covid19 risks https://t.co/fspDHHGY1R (via Twitter https://t.co/07qBRG5aYf)
Interesting analysis by @d_spiegel on whether we should use a comparison with “normal risk” when understanding and communicating #Covid19 risks https://t.co/Wtk222vPWW
RT @alexmilberg: Los menores de 30 años sanos no tienen más riesgo de morir por el Covid 19. Para los sub 45, es casi igual. Un paper comp…
RT @alexmilberg: Los menores de 30 años sanos no tienen más riesgo de morir por el Covid 19. Para los sub 45, es casi igual. Un paper comp…
@RCharlton1966 @gronvita @MaxCRoser COVID-19 kills roughly in proportion to non-COVID deaths. This isn't a disease just for those at death's door, any more than other deaths are. https://t.co/BkxGp03RVo
@BobM86 @PiersPd0930 https://t.co/6qH6wVozWJ Here’s another set of stats that relate to deaths rather than cases.
@monstroso This is worth reading from the BMJ. https://t.co/oa96JcvoI6
If you were frail & had 60% risk of dying next yr, then with infection this would rise to 2×0.6–0.62=0.84, so you would have an 84% chance of dying. 90+% of people who have died with covid-19 had pre-existing medical conditions. See Spiegelhalter ht
@CotswoldsBloke And on the underlying mortality relationship w/ age https://t.co/tgs6kdePUG See also ALAMA's covid risk score. If it were just about mortality risk I'd be less supportive of the blunt suppression tools. But the long covid issue suggests
RT @alexmilberg: Los menores de 30 años sanos no tienen más riesgo de morir por el Covid 19. Para los sub 45, es casi igual. Un paper comp…
RT @alexmilberg: Los menores de 30 años sanos no tienen más riesgo de morir por el Covid 19. Para los sub 45, es casi igual. Un paper comp…
RT @alexmilberg: Los menores de 30 años sanos no tienen más riesgo de morir por el Covid 19. Para los sub 45, es casi igual. Un paper comp…
Los menores de 30 años sanos no tienen más riesgo de morir por el Covid 19. Para los sub 45, es casi igual. Un paper compara los riesgos del c19 vs los previos a la pandemia Cuidar a los mayores, se sabe desde abril. https://t.co/Y5NYYWCP1y
RT @d_spiegel: My BMJ paper on using the idea of ‘normal’/background/actuarial risk to communicate the huge range of risks from COVID-19 ex…
@YouGov Where does @YouGov find such a panel? Absolutely no sense of proportion or understanding of risk! https://t.co/zB5eLiaWgd https://t.co/J5Ld7BHiQx
RT @d_spiegel: My BMJ paper on using the idea of ‘normal’/background/actuarial risk to communicate the huge range of risks from COVID-19 ex…
For those under 55 (not me) who are *infected* with Covid (not just that they have a +ve PCR) the risk of dying is less than the 'normal' risk of death from all other causes over the course of a year. https://t.co/dNKVjqf93P
@castlvillageman No flu can kill you by causing viral pneumonia. As for risk from Corona this is quite good; https://t.co/3ITAOfVXvD
It is the IFR that represents the 'threat' of any virus and is therefore the far more important statistic. The estimates do change as more is known about the virus and its prevalence. Source: https://t.co/D3biqoYl0v
@srepetto Si te interesa el tema, te paso esto para que leas. Lo de fin de año, etc., no es así. Y no hay nada “rebuscado”, lo que es es “complicado”. Paciencia y a usar barbijo https://t.co/BRwNkRFAzm
Fatality rates due to #covid19 suggest an extra 5 weeks of mortality risk above normal for >55 yrs https://t.co/AjqVso1D2Q
@Rikipincha Te equivocas. Se demostró Que Ferguson estaba en lo cierto; este análisis de uno de los mayores expertos mundiales en “Risk” lo aclara https://t.co/BRwNkRFAzm
RT @DavidAOliverJr: @NAChristakis @boback @JeffSharlet His actuarial risk was 3.2% to begin with https://t.co/ThhFvOU9nc Given that COVID-1…
RT @Hiroshi_Tsuji: 新型コロナの死亡率は高齢なほど著明に高い、一方人間は元々高齢なほど死亡率が高い。この差はどの程度か?同じ1年で、年齢に応じた元々の死亡率と新型コロナに感染したと仮定した死亡率はおおよそ同じ程度との論文が英医師会雑誌から出てます。感染致命割合…
@NAChristakis @boback @JeffSharlet His actuarial risk was 3.2% to begin with https://t.co/ThhFvOU9nc Given that COVID-19 adds a temporary 1 yr increase in actuarial age https://t.co/gw3qHwViVw that would raise his current All Cause risk to ~ 3.6%.
RT @d_spiegel: My BMJ paper on using the idea of ‘normal’/background/actuarial risk to communicate the huge range of risks from COVID-19 ex…
RT @ProfAndrewScott: Communicating the risks of Covid-19 infection by @D_spiegel. For average over-55 year olds infection more than doubles…
RT @Hiroshi_Tsuji: 新型コロナの死亡率は高齢なほど著明に高い、一方人間は元々高齢なほど死亡率が高い。この差はどの程度か?同じ1年で、年齢に応じた元々の死亡率と新型コロナに感染したと仮定した死亡率はおおよそ同じ程度との論文が英医師会雑誌から出てます。感染致命割合…
RT @Hiroshi_Tsuji: 新型コロナの死亡率は高齢なほど著明に高い、一方人間は元々高齢なほど死亡率が高い。この差はどの程度か?同じ1年で、年齢に応じた元々の死亡率と新型コロナに感染したと仮定した死亡率はおおよそ同じ程度との論文が英医師会雑誌から出てます。感染致命割合…
RT @d_spiegel: My BMJ paper on using the idea of ‘normal’/background/actuarial risk to communicate the huge range of risks from COVID-19 ex…
RT @Hiroshi_Tsuji: 新型コロナの死亡率は高齢なほど著明に高い、一方人間は元々高齢なほど死亡率が高い。この差はどの程度か?同じ1年で、年齢に応じた元々の死亡率と新型コロナに感染したと仮定した死亡率はおおよそ同じ程度との論文が英医師会雑誌から出てます。感染致命割合…
RT @ProfAndrewScott: Communicating the risks of Covid-19 infection by @D_spiegel. For average over-55 year olds infection more than doubles…
Communicating the risks of Covid-19 infection by @D_spiegel. For average over-55 year olds infection more than doubles annual mortality risk with impact rising with age https://t.co/JtJ0xvkWnZ #ageing #covid #covid19 #coronavirus https://t.co/1PHiNtKm7j
RT @d_spiegel: My BMJ paper on using the idea of ‘normal’/background/actuarial risk to communicate the huge range of risks from COVID-19 ex…
RT @d_spiegel: @LouisLemieux6 you can read it off the graphs here https://t.co/gRz1PsJZ6n
@Psynian @Gordy_McK @rolty1974 @carlheneghan This work’s been done by David Spiegelhalter. SARS-CoV 2 roughly doubles your risk of death over a 12 month period. That’s a significant risk. https://t.co/hYnvdcXLIq
RT @d_spiegel: @LouisLemieux6 you can read it off the graphs here https://t.co/gRz1PsJZ6n
@LouisLemieux6 you can read it off the graphs here https://t.co/gRz1PsJZ6n
@ActionM98917267 @JenWilliamsMEN @ASlightReturn1 This hasn't received much coverage from theBMJ. Worth reading. https://t.co/oa96JcvoI6
RT @j_sato: 英国統計学者がコロナで死ぬ確率を通常生活で死ぬリスクと相対化 - 55歳超にとっては、5週間多く生きるリスクと同じ - 55歳以下だと低下し、学童年齢で2日多く生きるリスクと同じ 日本に当てはめ単純に50分の1とすると - 55歳超には0.7日分 -…
@theAliceRoberts This is worth reading from theBMJ. The charts show normal life is a higher risk than #COVIDー19. With the right strategies, can we unleash the potential & prosperity of our young people, better protect the vulnerable & invest in neg
RT @Hiroshi_Tsuji: 新型コロナの死亡率は高齢なほど著明に高い、一方人間は元々高齢なほど死亡率が高い。この差はどの程度か?同じ1年で、年齢に応じた元々の死亡率と新型コロナに感染したと仮定した死亡率はおおよそ同じ程度との論文が英医師会雑誌から出てます。感染致命割合…
RT @j_sato: 英国統計学者がコロナで死ぬ確率を通常生活で死ぬリスクと相対化 - 55歳超にとっては、5週間多く生きるリスクと同じ - 55歳以下だと低下し、学童年齢で2日多く生きるリスクと同じ 日本に当てはめ単純に50分の1とすると - 55歳超には0.7日分 -…
RT @j_sato: 英国統計学者がコロナで死ぬ確率を通常生活で死ぬリスクと相対化 - 55歳超にとっては、5週間多く生きるリスクと同じ - 55歳以下だと低下し、学童年齢で2日多く生きるリスクと同じ 日本に当てはめ単純に50分の1とすると - 55歳超には0.7日分 -…
RT @Hiroshi_Tsuji: 新型コロナの死亡率は高齢なほど著明に高い、一方人間は元々高齢なほど死亡率が高い。この差はどの程度か?同じ1年で、年齢に応じた元々の死亡率と新型コロナに感染したと仮定した死亡率はおおよそ同じ程度との論文が英医師会雑誌から出てます。感染致命割合…
@nevakissedatory @JuliaHB1 Try this article in the BMJ. Risk of death only rises above 1% for the age group 85+. Stop living in fear of something that is highly unlikely to kill you! https://t.co/5OUGMz7Y5h
RT @Hiroshi_Tsuji: 新型コロナの死亡率は高齢なほど著明に高い、一方人間は元々高齢なほど死亡率が高い。この差はどの程度か?同じ1年で、年齢に応じた元々の死亡率と新型コロナに感染したと仮定した死亡率はおおよそ同じ程度との論文が英医師会雑誌から出てます。感染致命割合…